Sports Betting
Closing line value (CLV)
Closing line value (CLV) is the difference between the odds a bettor took and the final odds available just before the event starts, used to measure whether the bettor beat the market.
- Applies to
- Fixed-odds markets, point spreads, moneylines, and totals where opening and closing lines can be compared 43
- Positive CLV
- When the bettor's odds are better than the closing odds, indicating they beat the market 14
- Negative CLV
- When the bettor's odds are worse than the closing odds, indicating they lost to the market 14
Key points
- CLV compares the price a bettor secured with the market's final price just before an event starts, not with the opening line. 14
- A positive CLV suggests the bettor identified value before the market adjusted, often used by sharp bettors as a performance metric. 1
- CLV is distinct from betting edge (any advantage over the bookmaker) and from vigorish (the bookmaker's commission). 25
Where this term is used
Not the same as
- Vig meaning — the bookmaker's commission or margin, not a measure of line comparison
- Moneyline — a type of bet on which team will win, not a metric for comparing odds
Related terms
Sports betting
Parlay
A single bet that links two or more selections, all of which must win to pay out.
Sports betting
Moneyline
A bet on which side will win outright, expressed in odds.
Sports betting
Spread betting
Betting on the margin of victory, with a handicap applied to the favourite.
Sports betting
Moneyline betting
Another term for betting on the outright winner of a game.
Sports betting
Point spread
A handicap given to the underdog to level the betting field.
Sports betting
Vig meaning
The commission or fee the bookmaker charges on each bet.
Sources
- A Systematic Review of Machine Learning in Sports Betting arxiv.org Defines CLV as the difference between taken odds and closing odds, and explains how it measures market-beating.
- [PDF] Converting College Football Point Spread Differentials to Probability arxiv.org Distinguishes betting edge from CLV and notes no standard CLV formula is given.
- Wages of wins:⋆could an amateur⋆⋆make money arxiv.org Confirms CLV applies to fixed-odds markets and line-based bets.
- Fixed-odds betting - Wikipedia en.wikipedia.org Provides the fixed-odds betting context and explains how lines move with information.
- Vigorish - Wikipedia en.wikipedia.org Clarifies that vigorish is the bookmaker's margin, not a line-comparison metric.
Sources are drawn from regulators, universities and published research, and each one is labelled with what it actually is — a preprint is not called a paper. Bookmaker and affiliate pages are never cited here, because a page that sells betting is not a neutral authority on it.