Odds, Probability & Bankroll
American odds to implied probability
The process of turning a moneyline price into the break-even percentage that outcome must have for the bet to be fair.
Key points
- Negative odds state how much to risk to win $100; positive odds state profit on a $100 stake.1
- The conversion yields the bookmaker's implied probability, not the true probability of the event.12
- The formulas apply only to American odds, not to decimal or fractional formats.13
Where this term is used
Related terms
Odds & probability
Odds vs probability
Explains the difference between odds as a payout ratio and probability as a percentage chance.
Odds & probability
American odds
Defines the moneyline format where odds are positive or negative numbers.
Odds & probability
Implied probability
Covers the general concept of converting any odds format into a break-even percentage.
Odds & probability
Odds
Introduces odds as a way to express the price of a bet.
Odds & probability
Decimal odds to American
Shows how to convert decimal odds into the American moneyline format.
Odds & probability
Betting odds to probability
Covers the general conversion from any odds format to implied probability.
Sources
- Player Props: Understanding the Math Behind the Lines wizardofodds.com Provides the exact formulas for converting American odds to implied probability and the worked examples.
- Ask The Wizard #412 wizardofodds.com Supports the point that the result is an implied probability, not the true probability.
- Sports betting - Wikipedia en.wikipedia.org Confirms that American odds are a distinct format with its own conversion method.
Sources are drawn from regulators, universities and published research, and each one is labelled with what it actually is — a preprint is not called a paper. Bookmaker and affiliate pages are never cited here, because a page that sells betting is not a neutral authority on it.