Gambling terms, explained straight

In poker, ICM also refers to a simulator that applies the model to tournament strategy.

Poker

Icm meaning

The Independent Chip Model (ICM) is a formula that works out how much a player's chips are worth in real money during a poker tournament, based on the remaining prize pool and everyone's stack sizes.

Full name
Independent Chip Model
Also called
Malmuth–Harville method1
Applies to
Poker tournaments and sit-and-gos, especially push/fold endgame decisions1

Key points

  • ICM assumes each player's chance of finishing first is linearly proportional to their chip percentage, then recursively derives probabilities for other positions.2
  • It converts chip shares into expected prize money by weighting finishing probabilities by the payout structure.3
  • The model ignores skill, blind levels, and table dynamics, making it an approximation rather than an exact calculation.2

Where this term is used

Not the same as

  • Icm poker — a shorthand for an ICM-based simulator rather than the mathematical model itself
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Sources

  1. Independent Chip Model en.wikipedia.org Provides the definition, alternative name, and application of ICM.
  2. Empirical Validation of the Independent Chip Model arxiv.org Supports the linear proportionality assumption and recursive derivation.
  3. The Independent Chip Model and Risk Aversion arxiv.org Supports the conversion of chip shares into expected prize money.

Sources are drawn from regulators, universities and published research, and each one is labelled with what it actually is — a preprint is not called a paper. Bookmaker and affiliate pages are never cited here, because a page that sells betting is not a neutral authority on it.

Written and maintained by Ellis Warrender, writer and maintainer.

Last updated 28 July 2026. Spotted an error? Tell me and it gets fixed and logged on the corrections page.