Outside poker, ICM can mean "idealized cognitive model" or other acronyms, so the poker sense is context-specific.4
Poker
Icm poker
ICM poker stands for the Independent Chip Model, a mathematical model that estimates each player's expected prize money from their chip stack in a tournament.
- Full name
- Independent Chip Model
- Also called
- Malmuth–Harville method1
- Applies to
- Poker tournaments and sit-and-go tournaments, especially late-stage push/fold spots12
- Core assumption
- Each player's chance of finishing 1st is proportional to chip count; later places are computed recursively15
- Skill assumption
- Treats all players as equally skilled16
Key points
- ICM converts chip stacks into dollar equity using the tournament's payout structure and the assumption that chips are linear for first place but lose value as stacks grow.1
- It is most useful in late-stage tournament decisions, such as push/fold spots, where the difference between cash prizes is large relative to chip values.13
- The model does not account for skill differences, table dynamics, or the blind structure, so real-world results can deviate from ICM predictions.6
- ICM is distinct from chip EV (expected value) because a chip gained is worth less than a chip lost when approaching the money or a pay jump.
How ICM works in practice
In a three-player tournament with a $500/$300/$200 payout, each player starts with equal chips. Player A has 5,000 chips, B has 3,000, and C has 2,000. ICM estimates A's first-place chance as 5,000/10,000 = 50%. To find second-place chances, it removes A's chips and recalculates: B's chance to finish second given A wins is 3,000/5,000 = 60%, and so on. The final equity for A is roughly $383, B $317, and C $300, showing that chips are not linear in value.1
Where this term is used
Not the same as
- Icm meaning — the general acronym page that covers non-poker definitions of ICM
Related terms
Sources
- Independent Chip Model en.wikipedia.org Provides the core definition, alternative name, and calculation method for ICM.
- Glossary of poker terms en.wikipedia.org Confirms that ICM applies to poker tournaments and sit-and-gos.
- SitNGo Wizard - Wikipedia en.wikipedia.org Links ICM to sit-and-go tournament software like SitNGo Wizard.
- ICM - Wikipedia en.wikipedia.org Shows that ICM has other meanings outside poker.
- The Independent Chip Model and Risk Aversion arxiv.org Explains the recursive calculation of finishing probabilities and risk aversion.
- [PDF] Empirical Validation of the Independent Chip Model - arXiv arxiv.org Provides empirical validation and notes the equal-skill assumption.
Sources are drawn from regulators, universities and published research, and each one is labelled with what it actually is — a preprint is not called a paper. Bookmaker and affiliate pages are never cited here, because a page that sells betting is not a neutral authority on it.