Gambling terms, explained straight

Poker

Icm poker tournament

An ICM poker tournament is a poker tournament analysed using the Independent Chip Model, which estimates a player's equity from chip stacks and the payout structure.

Also called
Independent Chip Model, Malmuth–Harville method 14
Applies to
Poker tournaments and sit n gos, especially late-stage push/fold decisions 26
Key formula
First-place probability is proportional to chip share; later positions use recursive conditional probability: P(Xi=2 | Xk=1) = xi / (1 − xk) 15

Key points

  • Assumes players of comparable skill, so stack sizes determine finishing probabilities 15.
  • First-place probability is proportional to chip count; later positions are calculated recursively by conditioning on higher finishers 16.
  • The model combines those probabilities with the payout schedule to estimate expected prize money 16.

Where this term is used

Not the same as

  • Satellite tournament poker — a tournament format that awards entries or seats, while ICM is a valuation model used to estimate equity in tournaments 63
  • 6-max poker tournament strategy — a table format with six players maximum, while ICM is a chip-to-prize equity model that can be applied in that format 63
Poker Icm poker Covers the Independent Chip Model as a general poker concept. Poker Poker hands Lists hand rankings used in poker games. Poker Omaha poker Explains the rules and strategy of Omaha poker. Poker Flush poker Defines a flush hand in poker. Poker Quads poker Defines four of a kind in poker. Poker Pai gow poker betting The money a player puts at risk on a single round of pai gow poker

Sources

  1. Independent Chip Model en.wikipedia.org Provides the definition, alternative names, formula, and explanation of how ICM works.
  2. Glossary of poker terms en.wikipedia.org Confirms that ICM applies to poker tournaments and sit n gos.
  3. Poker tournament - Wikipedia en.wikipedia.org Supports the distinction from satellite tournaments and 6-max format.
  4. ICM - Wikipedia en.wikipedia.org Confirms the alternative name 'ICM'.
  5. The Independent Chip Model and Risk Aversion arxiv.org Provides the recursive conditional probability formula and the assumption of comparable skill.
  6. Empirical Validation of the Independent Chip Model - arXiv arxiv.org Supports the application to late-stage push/fold decisions and the distinction from satellite and 6-max.

Sources are drawn from regulators, universities and published research, and each one is labelled with what it actually is — a preprint is not called a paper. Bookmaker and affiliate pages are never cited here, because a page that sells betting is not a neutral authority on it.

Written and maintained by Ellis Warrender, writer and maintainer.

Last updated 28 July 2026. Spotted an error? Tell me and it gets fixed and logged on the corrections page.