Casino & Table Games

Blackjack odds dealer vs player

Dealer bust probability (S17)

≈ 29.1% when dealer stands on soft 17⁵

Dealer bust probability (H17)

≈ 29.6% when dealer hits on soft 17⁵

Net win probability

42.42% under typical Vegas rules; 46.36% excluding ties⁵

Key points

• Most blackjack games have a house edge between 0.5% and 1%.¹
• A 6:5 blackjack payout raises the house edge to 1.06% in a face-up variant; 1:1 payout raises it to 2.27%.³⁴
• Dealer odds tables give the probability of each final hand by up-card, assuming the dealer has not already checked for blackjack.²

Where this term is used

• Blackjack
• Odds and probability
• Casino floor

Not the same as

• Blackjack rules dealer — the dealer's prescribed actions and restrictions, not the odds or probability outcome
• Casino blackjack odds — the casino-wide player expectation for blackjack under a rule set, usually expressed as house edge or payout effect rather than the dealer-vs-player matchup alone

Related terms

Sources

1. Blackjack en.wikipedia.org Provides the general house edge range and basic blackjack resolution rules.
2. Dealer Odds in Blackjack under U.S. Rules wizardofodds.com Supplies dealer odds tables and the definition of dealer odds.
3. Face Up Blackjack - Wizard of Odds wizardofodds.com Gives the 6:5 blackjack payout house edge figure.
4. Blackjack wizardofodds.com Provides the 1:1 blackjack payout house edge and rule comparison.
5. Blackjack - Probability wizardofodds.com Supplies dealer bust probabilities and net win probabilities.

Sources are drawn from regulators, universities and published research, and each one is labelled with what it actually is — a preprint is not called a paper. Bookmaker and affiliate pages are never cited here, because a page that sells betting is not a neutral authority on it.