Casino & Table Games
Blackjack odds
Blackjack odds refers to the probability of being dealt a natural 21, or the payout ratio paid on that hand, most commonly 3:2.
Key points
- The odds of a blackjack are the chance of a natural 21, which Wizard of Odds gives as 4.53% for a six-deck game.13
- A blackjack hand is traditionally paid 3:2; a 6:5 payout raises the house edge by roughly 1.4%.51
- House edge is the ratio of expected player loss to the initial bet, typically between 0.5% and 1% for standard blackjack.52
How to calculate expected value in blackjack
Expected value (EV) is the average amount you win or lose per bet. Multiply each outcome's probability by its net gain, then sum them. For a simple bet of £10 on a blackjack paying 3:2, with a 4.53% chance of a natural 21 and a roughly 49% chance of losing (ignoring pushes), EV = (0.0453 × £15) + (0.49 × -£10) + (other outcomes). A full calculation requires the game's specific rules and basic strategy.12
Common questions
How to calculate expected value in blackjack?
Expected value (EV) is the sum of each outcome's probability multiplied by its net gain. For a £10 bet with a 4.53% chance of a 3:2 blackjack (win £15), a 49% chance of losing (-£10), and other outcomes, EV = (0.0453 × 15) + (0.49 × -10) + ... . The exact EV depends on the rule set and basic strategy.12
Where this term is used
Not the same as
- Casino blackjack odds — often used interchangeably but can refer to the game's overall house edge rather than the specific blackjack event
- Baccarat odds vs blackjack — concerns baccarat outcomes and payouts, not blackjack's natural 21 or pay table
- Blackjack insurance odds — a separate side bet paying 2:1 if the dealer has blackjack, not the odds of the player's own blackjack
Related terms
Sources
- Blackjack Odds (3 to 2 opposed to 6 to 5) wizardofodds.com Provides the probability of a player blackjack (4.53%) and the 3:2 vs 6:5 payout comparison.
- Gambling Glossary wizardofodds.com Defines house edge as the ratio of expected player loss to initial bet.
- Blackjack - House Edge and Rule Sets wizardofodds.com Gives the six-deck blackjack probability of 0.047489.
- Blackjack wizardofodds.com States that a player blackjack is traditionally paid 3 to 2.
- Blackjack en.wikipedia.org Provides the typical house edge range (0.5% to 1%) and the 6:5 payout effect.
Sources are drawn from regulators, universities and published research, and each one is labelled with what it actually is — a preprint is not called a paper. Bookmaker and affiliate pages are never cited here, because a page that sells betting is not a neutral authority on it.